Dutch mobile market drops by 5.4%

Dutch mobile market drops by 5.4%

The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.37 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2013, showing a decrease of 5.4 percent compared to the same quarter last year and a decline of 3.0 percent when compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. According to Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor, this year’s annual decline (of 5.4%) is larger than the 2.7 percent decline in the same period last year. This is mainly due to continued decline in voice revenues but also due to a small annual drop in non-voice revenue (SMS and data) for the first time, which normally compensated for some of the drop in voice revenues. Non-voice services now contribute over 39.8 percent of total service revenue versus 38.4 percent in Q1 2012.

Leading market research firm Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry based on the recent quarterly results and current market conditions. For 2013 we expect the Dutch market to show a decline of around 3-4 percent to around EUR 5.6 billion service revenue at the end of the year.

For the period 2012-2017, the Dutch market is expected to show a negative CAGR of 1-2 percent, reaching around EUR 5.4 billion in 2017. The slightly negative outlook compared to previous forecast is due to expected late effects of the economic slowdown, further drop in voice revenues due to continued regulation and a larger impact from the threats of OTT and Wi-Fi. “Besides regulation, also in light of the shift to data-centric customer behaviour, operators will be forced to make further changes in their tariff pricing in order to counteract the continuous drop in voice revenues,” said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst and author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor for The Netherlands.

In terms of overall service revenue performance, mainly KPN but also Vodafone increased its market share at T-Mobile’s expense which lost the most annually and quarterly. KPN increased its market share annually by 0.6 percent, while Vodafone was only up by 0.1 percent while T-Mobile lost 0.6 percent.
In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw a slight decrease of 0.4 percent annually to 20.4 million at the end of March 2013 (* see note). As a consequence mobile market penetration decreased from 122.2 percent in Q1 2012 to 121.4 percent in Q1 2013. Compared to a year ago market shares* have barely changed with KPN leading with 45 percent of all subscribers; Vodafone at 30 percent, while T-Mobile had 25 percent.

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